Public Opinion and policy Essay Example for Free

Public Opinion and policy Essay In Public Opinion: Democratic Ideals, Democratic Practice, Rosalee Clawson and Zoe Oxley interpret public opinion as an individual’s beliefs and preferences in regards to all governmental matters and policies.(424) These individual ideas collectively are viewed as the overall populations opinions summarized and can be reflected by a poll. By collecting these opinions through the polling process, lawmakers are likely to take these opinions into consideration when creating and/or regulating a policy. In 1824 The Harrisburg Pennsylvanian newspaper conducted one such poll where the readers were asked to return a postcard with their opinion about the presidential candidates; Andrew Jackson or John Quincy Adams. Jackson won the poll as well as the eventual election.(Franklin) This style of opinion polling has increased over the years and evolved into a more refined and accurate representation of the public. For instance, instead of submitting an untraceable, anonymous postcard, people are instead asked to submit a survey and are required to submit some personal information, which will remain anonymous, in order to prevent the chance of someone submitting more than one survey. Due to the availability of the telephones and the internet, we are able to survey a larger and more diverse group of citizens which will allow for more accurate results. As voters, we are able to have some control over who represents our opinions as well as who we believe will make decisions that are truly for the betterment of the people and society. By understanding the five linkage models established by Norman Luttbeg (Robert Kent, 20-21) we are able to see how public opinion can sway the formulation of a public policy. 1. The Rational-Activist Model assumes that all voting citizens are level-headed, informed, involved and politically active individuals. This model presents the idea that if representatives do not make decisions to satisfy the demands of the people, then the people will replace that representative. This model is the least likely to be apparent since the majority of the public does not keep close tabs on political actions. The largest flaw with this model is that we are assuming all voters are educated and rational about a particular issue and/or candidate. 2. The Political Parties Model takes place when an individual has an overall agreement with the ideals of an individual party. Citizens identify with a party whose overall attitude and beliefs mesh with their own. A major flaw within this model is the idea that representatives feel  pressured to take actions that are for the betterment of the party but not always for the individual citizen. 3. The Interest Groups Model establishes that the public can express their opinions to lawmakers by forming a group who will advocate for a collective cause. The groups place pressure on the lawmakers and parties electorally by rallying behind those that will publicly promote them. As well as monetarily by donating funds to those individuals and/or parties. By understanding this particular model we are able to see the likelihood of one group being more represented than another in society. This would create strife among the people as the group who is the least wealthy would be more likely to be underrepresented even though that group could contain a more accurate representation of the overall public opinion. 4. The Delegate Model maintains that a representative is elected based on the candidates values but not necessarily their stance on the issues. This model varies from the Rational Activist model in that it places more responsibility on the candidate to follow the opinions of the constituency or face being replaced and not place the responsibility on the public to educate themselves. While the Delegate Model and the Rational Activist Model are very similar the key difference is in noting that this model places more pressure on a candidate to follow their constituency’s ideas even if the candidate believes that other options would be in the best interest of the constituents. 5. The Sharing Model speaks on the idea that a representative will act on their own belief that may not be in complete alignment with their constituency but due to the unlikelihood that the lawmaker will go directly against their constituency they are still placing public opinion in their favor. This model overwhelmingly displays that a representatives values and character may come more into consideration with a voter than that representatives stance on a particular issue. (WK 2008) When we say population we are referring to a large mass of people that represent the summation of a geographical area. (Robert Kent, 28) Population can be that of a country, state, city or even a university leading to extremely large groups of people that would take too much time to poll individually. Within any given population we take samples, collect data from a subdivision of a population in an effort to estimate the overall opinions of the collective group. Within these subsets of populations the results may not be a completely accurate reflection of the overall population. Religion,  race and income are factors that can greatly sway the outcome but most instances are unintentional. (US History) A biased sample is where there has been a methodical selection of the participants in an effort to achieve a planned outcome. An unintentional occurrence might take place with a telephone sampling. The University of Texas at Austin elaborated on this bias in regards to telephone sampling. For instance, if the amount of people who are without phones, or those who simply don’t answer the phone are not considered this can greatly skew the results. Truly random samplings are where the participants are participating solely due to chance and where every varying subset of citizens h as an equal chance to be selected. (Rosalee Zoe, 29-30) A sample will very rarely get the exact percentages as it is highly likely that they will miss a group of people since the entire population is not participating and we are taking smaller groups to represent the entirety. The confidence level is a mathematical probability measure that tells us how reliable our data is in terms of accuracy. We keep this probability to a manageable number by keeping the number of individuals polled low. Polls are kept to less than 1,000 respondents due to the margin of error as well as the fact that the accuracy improves only marginally with larger samples. (Robert Kent 30) The 1936 poll conducted by Literacy Digest proclaimed that the Republican candidate was likely to be the overwhelming winner of the Presidential election when in actuality it was Franklin Delano Roosevelt that won the bid for President. Seeing as how this poll was conducted at a time where the majority of people were dealing with the aftermath of the stock market crash and the subsequent great depression we can infer that the majority of the people polled were people who had the funds to subscribe to a weekly magazine, owned a telephone and possibly an automobile. The Republican candidate was projec ted to be the winner most likely due to the affluent Republican participants of the survey. During this same election George Gallup’s American Institute of Public Opinion did project the winner to be Franklin Delano Roosevelt, which placed the Gallup poll into the spotlight. It is believed that the Gallup poll was able to accurately predict the outcome due to their preference of using a smaller and more diverse sample. (Polling the Nations) Ideologies are the beliefs of an individual about the various social, cultural, political and economic operations within a society. An individual forms opinions based on their beliefs, life experience, genetics and many factors that as a whole make up their political ideology. (Rosalee Zoe, p62) The liberal ideology is based on the beliefs that government intervention in economic matters, as well as a basic belief in the equality of the people. While a conservatives ideology is based on the beliefs that there should be minimal government intervention in all matters, as well as an emphasis on tradition and individual responsibility. (Robert Kent, p72-73) There are five main influences that will affect how a person develops their ideology; family, gender, religion, ethnicity, and/or region. All of these influences will combine, influencing the opinions and beliefs of the citizen. Since a person develops opinions based on the experiences and knowledge they have developed over the course of their lives, there can be instances where a person can completely flip-flop on their original ideals as time progresses and while this is highly unlikely it is still possible.( Pelin, Erik, Jackie†¦) For instance, a person who grew up in an affluential conservative household may find as they get older and more independent that their view of the world is vastly different from that of their families. This can also lead to strife amongst families in instances where there is an obvious divide on the ideals. A person who is witness to the exchange of ideas between the opposing sides is likely to be influenced by the attitudes and opinions of the peop le while also comparing those individuals’ ideals to their behaviors, character, and reliability. Conservatives and Liberals have very different ideological standpoints and many Americans tend to lean towards one or the other in regards to their personal beliefs toward public policy making and governing styles. However, it has been discovered that the majority of the present American public do not identify themselves as adhering to one strict ideology but instead place themselves somewhere in the middle. (Robert Kent, p83) Conservatives have the highest percentage of individuals who are strict ideologues. (Gallup-a) But there are many individuals from either side that can be uncompromising  in their ideals and take their truth as the one and only truth. In understanding a person’s chosen ideology we are faced with an interesting fact; that while most people tend to identify themselves as conservative, the overall majority of the public tends to vote more liberally. (John, 2014) Conservatives are ideologically defined by their strict adherence to traditional values and practices as well as their support for little to no governmental regulation and their emphasis on individual citizens taking personal responsibility. Liberals are alternatively defined by their belief that the government should be active in the regulation of the people in order to protect the citizens from the possibility of unequal and discriminatory actions. (Rosalee Zoe, p134) Liberals are also recognized by their beliefs in the overall equality of citizens, protection of liberties and progressive thinking that is based on the idea that there is overall an essential goodness to the mass populous. While there are vast differences between these opposing sides, it is possible to see how a person may agree with a conservative view of government while simultaneously believing in the humanist attributes of the liberal view. Individuals will usually develop an allegiance to a particular party (typically Democrat or Republican, though many other political parties have emerged), or will categorize themselves as being an independent of a specific party affiliation. An individual’s party identification gives us a better idea on how that person will vote in elections as people tend to follow their elected party’s specific views on an issue as well as electorally support a political leader of the party, but that is not always the case. Party identification has been described as being a psychological identification, or being the way an individual has come to their current attitudes towards public policy by way of their individual life experience, that will continue to influence how new information is processed. (Thomas Geoffrey) If we were to question an individual’s likelihood to remain a steady voter for one particular party, the Michigan Model theory will give us such a theory to go on as this model emphasizes an individual’s party attachment is  predominately stable. One noticeable flaw in this theory is if a party were to change their stance on an issue that overwhelmingly goes against the beliefs or ideals of the individual, the voter may then vote against the party if not possibly switch parties altogether. But this is unlikely as the voter is more likely to respond to the performances of their elected representatives than to their ideologies alone. (Harold, David, Marianne Paul) By looking at the present day Republican Party we are able to see they are typically very conservative in their views, which may be why more and more religious people vote in accordance with this party. The Republican party favors towards older, affluent and white males while the Democratic party tends to be more diverse. The Democratic Party contains a very diverse group of people and is weighted in the areas of women, race and sexual orientation. (Gallup-b) The majority of younger Americans also identifies with the Democratic Party. By seeing the makeup of these parties we can deduce that it is likely the Democrats are representative of a â€Å"new school† wave that is pushing for a more liberalistic approach. (Adam, 2014) The presidential approval rating is one of the main political opinion polls taken and focused on by the media. This ranking shows whether the public generally approves or disapproves of the job performance of the person holding America’s highest office. In studying the inconsistent falls and climbs of the approval rating there have been certain trends believed to be the cause of some high points during a presidential term. (Rosalee Zoe, 109) The honeymoon effect is the first trend that will take place during the days after a President takes office. This effect refers to the initial phase after the swearing in of the president into the office. Since this man is entering office with a clean sheet, and has recently come off of an approval high as evidenced by his election, people are more likely to be optimistic towards actions taken by the president. Eventually there will come a time where a problem is encountered and the president’s plan of action will no doubtedly upse t a cluster of people. After this point there can be varying reasons for the day-to-day rising and falling of the approval rating. (Robert Kent, 120) In some instances a presidents rating can climb when the nation has been confronted with a foreign event that involves America and possibly a crisis for the American people. This idea is referred to as the rally round the flag effect. Robert Erikson and Kent Tedin write in American Public Opinion (121) this effect is likely to occur due to the desire of the American people to feel united behind a leader. One of the most accurate examples of this would be the attitude of the American people after the attacks that took place on 9/11 and the subsequent skyrocketing in the approval ratings for President George W. Bush. Upon deeper evaluation of this occurrence: when there is more of a relative calming of the people and the effects of war, both financially as well as the casualties incurred, the approval ratings are then subject to drop, one could say when â€Å"reality† sets in. (Rosalee Zoe, 111) The final source for the possible explanations behind drastic increases and decreases in a presidential approval rating is the state of the economy. An economy that is poorly performing will likely result in low approval ratings for the President and a prosperous economy to increase the approval rating. According to Kevin Hoover in his article â€Å"Phillips Curve†, during a low economic point there will be higher rates of unemployment and inflation. These two factors can have a substantial and negative impact on an individual’s livelihood. President Obama was elected during a time of economic strife due to many factors including a housing market crash as well as the weighing cost of the â€Å"War on Terror†. Even though Obama was not in the Presidential office during the onset of the war, nor was he to blame for the inevitable housing market crash, his approval rating suffered due to the onset of these events aftereffects. Bibliography Robert S. Erikson and Kent L. Tedin, American Public Opinion, New Jersey: Pearson Education, Inc., 2011 Rosalee A. Clawson and Zoe M. Oxley, Public Opinion: Democratic Ideals, Democratic Practice. Washington D.C., 2013 The University of Texas at Austin. â€Å"Biased Sampling and Extrapolation.† Last modified August 28, 2012. https://www.ma.utexas.edu/users/mks/statmistakes/biasedsampling.html Pelin Kesebir, Erik Phillips, Jackie Anson, Tom Pyszczynski, Matt Motyl, â€Å"Ideological Consistency across the Political Spectrum: Liberals are More Consistent but Conservatives Become More Consistent When Coping with Existential Threat† (February 11, 2013). http://ssrn.com/abstract=2215306 John Sides, â€Å"Why Most Conservatives are Secretly Liberals,† The Washington Post, March 6, 2014. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2014/03/06/why-most-conservatives-are-secretly-liberals/ Gallup-a. â€Å"Conservatives Remain the Largest Ideological Group in U.S.† Last modified January 12, 2012. http://www.gallup.com/poll/152021/conservatives-remain-largest-ideological-group.aspx Gallup-b. â€Å"Democrats Racially Diverse; Republicans Mostly White† Last modified February 8, 2013 http://www.gallup.com/poll/160373/democrats-racially-diverse-republicans-mostly-white.aspx US History. â€Å"American Political Attitudes and Participation: What Factors Shape Political Attitudes?† Last modified January, 2013. http://www.ushistory.org/gov/4b.asp Christopher Ellis and James A. Stimson, â€Å"Pathways to Ideology in American Politics: the Operational-Symbolic â€Å"Paradox† Revisited† http://www.unc.edu/~jstimson/Working_Papers_files/Pathways.pdf Harold D. Clarke, David Sanders, Marianne C. Stewart and Paul Whitely, â€Å"The Dynamics of Party Identification,† in Political Choice in Britain, edited by Harold D. Clarke (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004), 185-186. https://www.essex.ac.uk/bes/bookfiles/Sanders-ch06.pdf Franklin Marshall College. â€Å"The First Political Poll.† Last modified June 18, 2002. http://www.fandm.edu/politics/politically-uncorrected-column/2002-politically-uncorrected/the-first-political-poll WK, Ph.D. Candidate, â€Å"The Role of Salience on the Relationship between Public Policy and Public Opinion† (Paper prepared for DC AAPOR Student Paper Competition, December 12, 2008) http://www.dc-aapor.org/documents/spc08wk.pdf

Decision Model Theory Essay Example for Free

Decision Model Theory Essay Case Here we use the Thompson Lumber Company case as an example to illustrate these decision theory steps. John Thompson is the founder and president of Thompson Lumber Company, a profitable firm located in Portland, Oregon. Step 1 The problem that John Thompson identifies is whether to expand his product line by manufacturing and marketing a new product, backyard storage sheds. Step 2 * The second step is to list the alternative. * Thompson’s second step is to generate alternatives that are available to him . In decision theory the alternative is a course of action or strategy that the decision maker can choose .According to him his alternatives are to construct: 1†¢ a large new plant to manufacture the storage sheds 2†¢ a small plant, or 3†¢ no plant at all * So, the decision makers should try to make all possible alternatives ,on some occasion even the least important alternative might turn out to be the best choice. Step 3 * Third step is to identify possible outcomes. * The criteria for action are established at this time. According to Thompson there are two possible outcomes: the market for the storage sheds could be favorable means there is a high demand of the product or it could be unfavorable means that there is low demand of the product. * Optimistic decision makers tend to ignore bad outcomes; where as pessimistic managers may discount a favorable outcome. If you don’t consider all possibilities, it will be difficult to make a logical decision, and the result may be undesirable. * There may be some outcomes over which the decision maker has little or no control is known as states of nature. Step 4 * Fourth step is to list payoffs. * This step is to list payoff resulting from each possible combination of alternatives and outcomes. Because in this case he wants to maximize his profits, he use profits to evaluate each consequences .Not every decision, of course, can be based on money alone – any appropriate means of measuring benefit is acceptable. In decision theory we call such payoff or profits conditional values. Step 5 6 * The last two steps are to select and apply the decision theory model. * Apply it to the data to help make the decision. Selecting the model depends on the environment in which you are operating and the amount of risk and uncertainty involved. * Decision Table with condition values for Thompson TYPES OF DECISION MAKING ENVIRONMENTS * The types of decisions people make depends on how much knowledge or information they have about the situation. There are three kind of decision making environments: * Decision making under certainty. * Decision making under risk. * Decision making under uncertainty. Decision Making Under Certainty * Here the decision makers know about the certainty of consequences every alternative or decision choice has. * Naturally they will choose the alternative that will result in the best outcome. * Example: Let’s say that you have $10000 to invest for a period of one year. And you have two alternatives either to open a savings account paying 6% interest and another is investing in Govt. Treasury Bond paying 10% interest. If both the investments are secure and guaranteed, the best alternative is to choose the second investment option to gain maximum profit. Decision Making Under Risk * Here the decision Maker knows about the several possible outcomes for each alternative and the probability of occurrence of each outcome. * Example: The probability of being dealt a club is 0.25. The probability of rolling a 5 on die is 1/6. * In the decision making under risk, the decision maker usually attempts to maximize his or her expected well being. Decision theory models for business problems in this in this environment typically employ two equivalent criteria: maximization of expected monetary value and minimization of expected loss. * Expected monetary value is the weighted value of possible payoffs for each alternative Decision Making under Uncertainty * Here there are several outcomes for each alternative, and the decision maker does not know the probabilities occurrences of various outcomes. * Example The probability that a Democrat/Republican will be the President of a country 25 Years from now is not known. * The criteria that is covered in this section as follows: 1 – Maximax †¢ this criterion find the alternative that maximizes the maximum payoffs or consequence for every alternative. Here we first locate the maximum payoff with every alternative and then pick that alternative with the maximum number. This is also known as optimistic decision criterion. * Maximin †¢ this criterion finds the alternative that maximizes the minimum payoff or consequence for every alternative. Here we first locate the minimum outcome within every alternative and then pick that alternative with maximum number. This is called as pessimistic decision criterion. * Criterion of Realism: Also called as weighted average, is a compromise between an optimistic and a pessimistic decision. Let the coefficient of realism is ‘a’ selected. The coefficient is between 0 and 1. When ‘a’ is close to 1, the decision maker is optimistic about the future. When ‘a’ is close ‘0’ the decision maker is pessimistic. It helps the decision maker to build feelings about relative optimism and pessimism. * Weighted average =a (maximum in row) + (1-a)(minimum in row). * Equally likely (Laplace)-one criterion that uses all the payoffs for each alternative is the equally likely also called Laplace decision criterion. This is to fi nd alternative with highest payoff. * Minimax Regret †¢ the final decision criterion that we discuss is based on opportunity loss or regret. Expected Value of Perfect Information * Formula EVPI = A – B A = expected value with perfect information B = expected value without perfect information Calculation of (A) value: A = the best of each outcome x their prob. The best of outcomes: Best outcome= (100,000) (30,000) A= 0.6 x 100,000 + 0.4 x 30,000 = 72,000 Calculation of (B) value: B = we select the max value of each given below Outcome of each event: 0.6(50000) + 0.4 (30,000)= 42,000 0.6(100,000 -0.4(40,000)= 44,000 0.6(30,000) + 0.4(10,000)= 20,000 The max value for all computed value = 44,000 EVPI = A – B = 72,000 – 44,000 = 28,000 Expected Opportunity Loss The expected opportunity loss is the expected value of the regret for each decision (Minimax) EOL (Apartment) = $50,000(.6) + 0(.4) = 30,000 EOL (Office) = $0(.6) + 70,000(.4) = 28,000 EOL (Warehouse) = $70,000(.6) + 20,000(.4) = 50,000 Marginal Analysis * Most of our decisions are made following our â€Å"marginal analysis† of costs and benefits * To achieve a given outcome we often have to make a choice from among alternative means; we normally try to make the â€Å"least costly† choice among the available means * Sometimes our decisions result in benefits as well as costs; * How much food should you buy? * How many years of schooling should you have? * How many hours should you work? * How many workers should you hire? * How much should save/invest?

Analysis on Tristram Shandys Paradox

Analysis on Tristram Shandys Paradox Tristram Shandys Paradox According to an Encyclopedia entry on NationMaster.com (2009) it is generally considered that the publications of Laurence Sternes The Life and Opinion of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman had a dominant effect on literature of that time. Like his contemporary writers, Sterne debated publicly upon the boundary between literature and philosophy, thats why his book is filled with allusions and references to philosophers, critics and writers of the 17th and 18th centuries namely: Pope, Locke, and Swift. It seems that those leading thinkers influenced Sternes The Life and Opinion of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman immensely. For instance, sagacious â€Å"Lockes Essay Concerning Human Understanding (1690) contributed ideas and frameworks that Sterne explored throughout his novel, thus showing his engagement with the science and philosophy of his day: Pray, Sir, in all the reading which you have ever read, did you ever read such a book as Lockes Essay upon the Human Understanding? Dont answer me rashlybecause many, I know, quote the book, who have not read itand many have read it who understand it not:If either of these is your case, as I write to instruct, I will tell you in three words what the book is. It is a history.A history! of who? what? where? when? Dont hurry yourselfIt is a history-book, Sir, (which may possibly recommend it to the world) of what passes in a mans own mind; and if you will say so much of the book, and no more, believe me, you will cut no contemptible figure in a metaphysick circle. (Tristram Shandy, ch. 1 XXVII, p. 40) Many people believe that Sternes novelThe Life and Opinion of Tristram Shandy, Gentleman differs drastically from the contemporary literature of both Defoe and Richardson by his methods of narrative construction and exploration of the external world. Tristram Shandy is presented in the very act of creation and change by rejecting realism, but examining inner states of consciousness. In addition, what sets Tristram Shandy apart from its contemporary fiction is the use of language. It appears to me that this novel is an example of â€Å"process writing to the moment† where time is tied to and belongs to the protagonist. That kind of process writing in Lawrence Sternes novel, where the persona of author is trying desperately to write his autobiography, leads to one of the time paradoxes. It takes Tristram Shandy one year to record the events of a single day of his life. Tristram laments that, at this rate, he will never finish. I am this month one whole year older than I was this time twelve-month; and having got, as you perceive, almost into the middle of the fourth volume–and no farther than to my first days day–‘tis demonstrative that I have three hundred and sixty-four more days to write just now, than when I first set out; so that instead of advancing, as a common writer, in my work with what I have been doing at it–on the contrary, I am just thrown so many volumes back–was every day of my life to be as busy as this–And why not?–and the transactions and opinions of it to take up as much description–And for what reason should they be cut short? at this rate I should just live 364 times faster than I should write–It must follow, an please your worships, that the more I write, the more I shall have to write–and consequently, the more your worships read, the more your worships will have to read (Tristram Shandy, ch. 2 XVLIII, p. 126) In order to link Tristram Shandys writing process with time paradoxes, I will briefly outline the background to Bertrand Russells theory. In his book The Principles of Mathematics,chapter XLIII on the philosophy of the infinite his analysis consists of the inquiry â€Å"whether any contradiction can be found in the notion of infinite.† In this specific chapter Russells crucial points are focused on the semantical and set-theoretical paradoxes or â€Å"antinomies† as he calls them. The twentieth century philosopher, Bertrand Russell claimed that if Tristram Shandy were immortal he would be able to finish his autobiography. Russells assertion that Tristram would be able to complete this seemingly impossible task is the source of the Tristram Shandy paradox. And thus Russell concludes: Tristram Shandy, as we know, took two years writing the history of the first two days of his life, and lamented that, at this rate, material would accumulate faster than he could deal with it, so that he could never come to an end. Now I maintain that, if he had lived for ever, and not wearied of his task, then, even if his life had continued as eventfully as it began, no part of his biography would have remained unwritten. This paradox, which, as I shall show, is strictly correlative to the Achilles, may be called for convenience the Tristram Shandy. (Russell, p. 358) Russells theory consists of two powerful components in the Tristram Shandy paradox—the number of days that Tristram lives and the number of days required writing about those days. The sum of those two quantities will logically give us the number of days Tristram needs to complete his autobiography. Assuming that Tristram were indeed immortal, then the number of days in his life would be infinite. If that were the case, the second quantity, the number of days it takes him to write about his life, would also be infinite as well as the sum of those two quantities. Thus we can conclude that, Tristram needs an infinite number of days to finish his autobiography. Given he were immortal, he would have an infinite number of days in which to write. Therefore, the key aspect of Russells argument is the capability of an immortal Tristram Shandy finishing his autobiography, since the number of days in his life is equivalent to the number of days required to write about his life as they ar e both infinite. As far as Russells argument is concerned, it is not totally accepted. Many of his critics contend that Tristram Shandy could not possibly finish his autobiography even if he were immortal. Again, assuming that it takes Tristram one year to record the events of one day of his life, then each day that Tristram lives adds a year to the time needed to complete his task, thus causing him to fall another year behind with each passing day. As a result, in this situation the amount of time needed for Tristram to write his autobiography is increasing faster than the amount of time he actually has in which to write. It would simply cause him to fall infinitely far behind. Hence, according to critics of Russells argument the immortality would not allow the protagonist, Tristram, to complete his task. I strongly believe that both arguments outlined above are consistent as well as logically valid due to the case of the Tristram Shandy paradox. Nevertheless bearing in mind the previous points it could be said that the paradox discovered by Bertrand Russell in 1901 suggested that actual infinity was not an issue to dismiss due to the uncertain nature of infinity. I suppose that Tristram Shandys paradox emphasizes the basic problem in getting to grips with infinity which has always been a remarkable enchantment for great philosophers and writers throughout history in its notion of unending space and distance, God and eternity, time and duration. â€Å"To understand what time is aright, without which we never can comprehend infinity, insomuch as one is a portion of the otherwe ought seriously to sit down and consider what idea it is we have of duration, so as to give a satisfactory account how we came by it. What is that to any body? quoth my uncle Toby. (Vide Locke.)† (Tristram Shandy, ch. 2 XI, p. 84) It is necessary to note that Aristotle, the ancient Greek philosopher, provided a main key by introducing the terms actual infinite and potential infinite in an attempt to distinguish between the two. He strongly believed that the completed or actual infinite could not exist. While on the other hand, potential infinite might be represented as a manifest in nature. There has been debate as to whether infinity is a reality or an idea. Rucker in his chapter 1 on Infinity helps us in characterizing it as follows â€Å"Aristotle would say that the set of natural numbers is potentially infinite, since there is no largest natural number, but he would deny that the set is actually infinite, since it does not exist as one finished thing.†(p. 3) Later on Rucker ends up suggesting that Aristotles belief is a â€Å"doubtful distinction† agreeing with Cantors opinion that â€Å"†¦in truth the potentially infinite has only a borrowed reality, insofar as a potentially infinite c oncept always points towards a logically prior actually infinite concept whose existence it depends on.†(p. 3) In other words an actual infinite is not like a potential one which is growing to the infinity as a limit, although giving a collection which is finite in time at every point. If this is the case that potential infinite is growing to the infinite limit then I do believe in its existence. But as far as completed infinite is concerned, my supposition will be negative. I oppose to the fact that actual infinite exists. The concept of actual infinite seems to me as an idea or a succession of ideas in our mind while the notion of potential infinite is represented by the future. Granted that Tristram Shandy wrote one day of his autobiography for 365 days then in general what this will indicate is the sum of the two equivalents which would be constantly finite but increasing to the infinity as a limit. Thus I assume that a profound analysis of the Tristram Shandys paradox explained by Russell proves my suggestion that the narrator, Tristram Shandy, would never reach the completed or actual infinite. Hence he would never finish his autobiography.

modems :: essays research papers

Does the humble telephone lines play a major role in shaping the third millennium? Can a mere pair of thin copper wires twisted around each other transmit Internet data reliably and securely at blazing fast speed, making it possible to view high-quality moving images, sound and vast amounts of data on your personal computer screen or television? The answer is yes, as the growing success of DSL (digital subscriber line) technology abundantly demonstrates. The capacity of a communications channel depends on its bandwidth and its signal-to-noise ratio. A voice connection through a conventional phone network uses a bandwidth of about 3,000 hertz (Hz): from about 300 Hz to 3,300 Hz. An analog modem operating at 33.6 kilobits per second (kbps) requires a slightly wider bandwidth 3,200 Hz and needs a very good connection, one with a high signal-to-noise ratio. Modems operating at 56 kbps achieve their rates by taking advantage of digital connections that circumvent some sources of noise in transmissions toward the end user. But these bit rates are far from the maximum possible on a twisted pair alone. One process that limits bandwidth and signal strength is the steady attenuation of the signal as it travels down the line, with the higher frequencies being affected more severely. Greater capacity is therefore available if the lines are kept short. Originally, the Discrete Multitone approach was intended for sending entertainment video over telephone wires. Because such use relies principally on one-way transmission, most of the subchannels were devoted to the \\"downstream\\" signal, carrying about 6 Mbps, with about 0.6 Mbps available in the other direction. This asymmetric form of DSL has become known as ADSL, and the signal coding is now a worldwide standard. Although the video application has not yet borne fruit, asymmetric transmission fortuitously lends itself to browsing on the World Wide Web. Over the past year ADSL has begun to be widely installed in telephon e networks for always-on Internet access, typically operating at several hundreds of kbps or higher over phone wires up to about 5.5 kilometers in length. The beauty of ADSL, unlike the multilevel coding used in HDSL, is that the data can use channels operating above the voice frequency band, so a single phone line can simultaneously transmit voice and high-speed data. The newest standard of ADSL is G lite which is just for home users, a global standard that limits the data rates to 1.

Essay --

In 1973, Congress passed the Endangered Species Act (ESA) that expressed concern that many species were in danger of becoming extinct. These native plants/ animals are on the verge of disappearing forever...this act needs to save them. This act will protect and help species at risk of extinction recover. By promoting policies nationwide to help species recover that are native to the U.S., this act enforced by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Commerce Department’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), will help make these goals possible. In order to ensure that this is possible, the ESA contains sections that encourage States to maintain conservation programs for these species at risk. There are safe harbor agreements, candidate conservation agreements, and conservation banks that are in effect in sake of these threatened/ endangered species ("Endangered Species Act"). IUCN REDLIST The main goal of the Red List is to motivate the global community to help protect species from going extinct, while we can still make a change. †ªSome plans are to improve fisheries management, monitor and minimize effects of human disturbance in breeding areas, and provide nest boxes in predator-free areas in order to help monitor reproductive success for the penguins (Red List).†¬ The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is different each time due to the fact that the update changes the numbers of species listed in each category. Some reasons for this cause is because of various factors, including new species being added to the Red List, species being reassessed and moved into a different category of threat, and taxonomic revisions, which can change the total population of species within a group (Red List). IUCN has more than 1,... ...redible cultural asset to their land. Therefore, the Galapagos penguins are valuable, and need to be preserved. 1. Personally, a loss of any creature is a sad topic to discuss, especially an extinction. Our hopes are that this species does not go extinct in the near future. There are only 2000 of them left. There are wildlife efforts to save these galapagos penguins that must remain a necessity. By donating  £25 to the Galapagos Conservation Trust, you can adopt a Galà ¡pagos penguin. This adoption program is a UK registered charity working for the conservation needs of the Galà ¡pagos Islands (Galapagos Conservation Trust). It would be a disappointment if the last Galapagos penguin dies before any children can view them. It will be an amazing accomplishment if this species is preserved and taken off the Endangered Species List. Let's stay on the road to recovery! Essay -- In 1973, Congress passed the Endangered Species Act (ESA) that expressed concern that many species were in danger of becoming extinct. These native plants/ animals are on the verge of disappearing forever...this act needs to save them. This act will protect and help species at risk of extinction recover. By promoting policies nationwide to help species recover that are native to the U.S., this act enforced by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Commerce Department’s National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), will help make these goals possible. In order to ensure that this is possible, the ESA contains sections that encourage States to maintain conservation programs for these species at risk. There are safe harbor agreements, candidate conservation agreements, and conservation banks that are in effect in sake of these threatened/ endangered species ("Endangered Species Act"). IUCN REDLIST The main goal of the Red List is to motivate the global community to help protect species from going extinct, while we can still make a change. †ªSome plans are to improve fisheries management, monitor and minimize effects of human disturbance in breeding areas, and provide nest boxes in predator-free areas in order to help monitor reproductive success for the penguins (Red List).†¬ The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is different each time due to the fact that the update changes the numbers of species listed in each category. Some reasons for this cause is because of various factors, including new species being added to the Red List, species being reassessed and moved into a different category of threat, and taxonomic revisions, which can change the total population of species within a group (Red List). IUCN has more than 1,... ...redible cultural asset to their land. Therefore, the Galapagos penguins are valuable, and need to be preserved. 1. Personally, a loss of any creature is a sad topic to discuss, especially an extinction. Our hopes are that this species does not go extinct in the near future. There are only 2000 of them left. There are wildlife efforts to save these galapagos penguins that must remain a necessity. By donating  £25 to the Galapagos Conservation Trust, you can adopt a Galà ¡pagos penguin. This adoption program is a UK registered charity working for the conservation needs of the Galà ¡pagos Islands (Galapagos Conservation Trust). It would be a disappointment if the last Galapagos penguin dies before any children can view them. It will be an amazing accomplishment if this species is preserved and taken off the Endangered Species List. Let's stay on the road to recovery!

The Evil Eye in The Tell-Tale Heart Essay -- Tell-Tale Heart Essays

The Evil Eye in The Tell-Tale Heart  Ã‚        Ã‚   In Edgar Allen Poe's Short story "The Tell-Tale Heart" much is made of the "evil eye" of the old man. Immediately we are introduced to a man who would never hurt a fly. The narrator of the story even goes so far as to say he loved the old man. This old man is portrayed as one who would do anything for you. However, the caretaker of the old man has one small problem with the old man. The eye that darn evil eye! What could cause a person to become enraged by an eye and only one eye?   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Martha Womack stated that the violence comes from an irrational fear represented through the old man's eye. "The belief in the evil eye dates back to ancient times, and even today, is fairly common in India and the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea. References are made to it in Jewish, Islamic, Buddhist and Hindu faiths" (Poedecoder). Womack goes on to compare the "evil eye" to a Medusa type object that is being able to harm a person just by looking at them. This comparison goes to support my theory of a God like entity within the eye of the old man.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Many people have attempted to rationalize the meaning of the single "evil eye." Some people have attempted to relate the old man to a Cyclops. However, I see this eye from a Christian point of view. The eye is not "evil" in the sense of the devil instead in my humble opinion it is the eye of God. I agreed with B. D. Tucker. The first thing I attempted to do, was relate the Cyclops theory however, this did not sit well with me. The reason the Cyclops theory does not fit the story is that in the second paragraph Poe writes, "One of his eyes resembled that of a vulture" (Kennedy 34). The mythical Greek creature had only o... ...deas for what the story could represent. After studying the "Evil eye" in this story, I have no doubt that the eye is that of God. Work Cited Benfey, Christopher. "Poe and the Unreadable: 'The Black Cat' and 'The Tell-Tale Heart " New Essays on poe's Major Tales viii (1993): 27-43 Canario, John W. "The Dream in 'The Tell-Tale Heart." English-Language-Notes 7 (1970): 194-97 Great Seal. Homepage 1 March 2001. Great Seal. 5 July 2001 Kennedy, X. J., 7th ed. An Introduction to Fiction. NewYork: Longman, 1998: 33-7 The Poe Decoder. Home page. 12 April 2001.   The Poe Decoder. 5 July 2001 www.poedecoder.com> Robinson, E. Arthur. "Thoreau and the deathwatch in Poe's 'The Tell-Tale Heart." Poe-Studies 4:1 (1971): 14-6 Tucker, B. D. "The Tell-Tale Heart and the Evil Eye." Southern-Literary-Journal 13:2 (1981 Spring): 92-8

Critique of Quantitative Research Article Essay

Research Critique, Part 2: Critique of Quantitative Research Article The population who are diagnosed with obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) often experience daytime drowsiness and are at risk for ischemic heart disease, arrhythmias, hypertension, and other vascular related problems (Hsu et al., 2007). There are several treatment options for people with OSA, which are weight loss, continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), dental appliances, and surgical procedure. This study evaluates patients who have undergone uvulopalatopharyngoplasty (UPPP) to determine improvement and changes in surgical parameters of their upper airway using quantitative videoendoscopic computer-assisted measurement (CAM) in hopes of showing improvement in the apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). Protection of Human Participants The authors describe this study as prospective in design. The study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of UPPP, a surgical procedure for OSA, on patients who had surgery six months prior (Hsu et al., 2007). It is presumed every patient gave consent for the surgical procedure. An assumption may be made that subjects were voluntary for the post surgical study because there was no mention of further consents. It is not stated that this study had approval from an institutional review board from the agency. The 19 male patients participated in overnight pre and postoperative non-invasive polysomnnographic studies (PSG). These tests include the Epworth sleepiness scale recording, CAM of upper airway, and bio-data recording. PSG entails electroencephalogram (EEG), submental electromyogram (EMG), anterior tibialis EMG, electrocardiogram (ECG), thoraco-abdominal motion, oronasal airflow (expired CO2), arterial oxygen saturation with pulse oximetry, and electrooculography (EOG). Images were recorded for comparison evaluation postoperatively. The mean age of the subjects was 40.6 years with a mean body mass index (BMI) of 29.4, all who had UPPP after failing the CPAP trial and other medical methods. Data Collection and Analysis The major variables were labeled in association with the endoscopic photographs from the computer-assisted measurement (CAM) airway analysis at the retropalatal level with calibrator in regards to showing airway dimensions in both pre and postoperative images (Hsu et al., 2007). There was no sign of manipulation of these variables other than from the postoperative images. The research team compiled the data to show the regression data of UPPP surgery were considerably correlated with postoperative improvement. This method of data collection was used to analyze the correlation between modifications in surgical parameters and the postoperative status of OSA patients. The six-month postoperative, patients again underwent PSG, Epworth sleepiness scale recording, CAM of upper airway, and bio-data analysis. A total of eight videoendoscopic images were taken of all 19 subjects. Patients were analyzed during quiet respiration and Mueller’s maneuver in both supine and erect positions at the retropalatal and retrolingual levels. The Mueller’s maneuver is a non-invasive procedure using fiber optic endoscopic evaluation that measures both size, shape, and collapsibility of the upper airway (Friedman, 2009). Images were captured using a videocapture card, which was installed into the computer along with digital imaging software. Transverse and longitudinal dimensions, as well as surface areas were measured using digital software to calculate the collapsibility of obstructive sites of the upper airway. Comparison was made between pre and postoperative images, which show significant improvement of the retropalatal area by 70% (Hsu et al., 2007). Data Management and Analysis The author indicates that the researcher who performed the upper airway measurements was not privy to patient information whether they were of preoperative or postoperative status (Hsu et al., 2007). Following UPPP, the importance (p